Full out-of-sample history from 2004-11-18 to 2026-05-08. The strategy is fully deterministic — every regime flip, dip overlay, and rebalance is reproducible from the same six free FRED + yfinance inputs.
21.4 years of out-of-sample history.
Strategy vs SPY buy & hold (growth of $1)
Strategy max -20.9% · benchmark max -55.2%
Realised return and max drawdown during four major equity stress periods.
| Episode | Strategy return | SPY return | Strategy max DD | SPY max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 GFC | 6.1% | -37.4% | -20.9% | -55.2% |
| 2020 COVID | 5.8% | -5.1% | -18.6% | -33.7% |
| 2022 bear | -12.3% | -18.6% | -19.3% | -24.5% |
| 2018 Q4 | -2.4% | -13.6% | -4.4% | -19.3% |
See the live allocation, walk the six stress signals, or read the methodology.