# Taunusstar — Rule-Based Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy
# https://www.taunusstar.com

## About
Taunusstar publishes a transparent, deterministic rule-based multi-asset allocation strategy for a EUR-based investor. The portfolio holds three EUR-denominated sleeves — VWCE (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS, world equity), LQEE (iShares $ Corp Bond UCITS EUR Hedged, USD investment-grade credit with the currency hedged), and gold (unhedged, in EUR) — and rotates between two regimes: normal (50/30/20) and defensive (10/60/30), based on six independent stress signals. The stress signals are computed on US market data (S&P 500, US yield curve, DXY, gold in USD, US term premium), which remain the world's risk barometer; the traded book is EUR-denominated. A dip-buy overlay lifts equity exposure on shallow drawdowns, and a 10 ppts drift rule keeps rebalances rare. There is no machine learning, no model artifact, and no retraining: the same daily inputs always produce the same daily allocation. History before the instruments existed is spliced from predecessors (VWCE ← VT ← 60/40 SPY/AEPGX at 2019-07/2008-06; LQEE ← synthetically-hedged LQD at 2017-09).

## Key Pages

### Homepage (/)
Overview of the strategy, headline metrics, equity curve preview vs VWCE buy & hold (EUR, spliced), crisis performance, and FAQ.

### Allocation (/allocation)
Today's three-sleeve weights (VWCE · LQEE · Gold), current regime, the six stress signals, and the recent rebalance log.

### Backtest (/backtest)
Full history from 2004-11-18 onward, EUR-denominated. CAGR, Sharpe, Sortino, max drawdown for both the strategy and the VWCE buy & hold benchmark. Cumulative-returns chart, drawdown chart, and crisis decomposition (2008 GFC, 2011 Eurozone, 2020 COVID, 2022 bear).

### Stress Signals (/stress-signals)
The six-signal dashboard: current regime, each signal's firing history (1-year sparkline), the full regime history strip back to 2002. Signals (computed on US data as signal inputs): 189-day S&P 500 momentum, 10Y/2Y inversion in the past 150 days, 21-day realised vol > 30%, DXY +5% in 21 days, gold +15% in 63 days, 10Y term-premium Z-score > 2.

### The Strategy (/the-model)
Explainer page describing the two regime allocations, the six stress signals (with rationale), the dip-buy overlay, the drift-only rebalance rule, the EUR book construction and splices, and the daily operations.

### Methodology (/methodology)
Validation protocol: walk-forward folds, grid-search robustness of the production allocation, preregistered research rounds with bootstrap gates (see the EUR-seat and bond-sleeve studies), and full crisis decomposition. Historical validation figures from the v1 USD book are labeled as such.

### About (/about)
Why a rule-based engine, what taunusstar believes about transparency, and the mission to make tactical allocation reproducible by anyone.

### Contact (/contact)
Contact form.

## Data Sources
- EODHD: VWCE.XETRA, LQEE.LSE, EURUSD, plus signal inputs SPY, LQD, GLD, DXY (adjusted close, total return) and splice predecessors (VT, AEPGX)
- FRED: T10Y2Y (10Y/2Y Treasury spread), THREEFYTP10 (10Y Treasury term premium), DGS3MO and EUR 3M rates (hedge-carry splice)
- Daily updates at 04:30 UTC; no retraining

## Important Disclaimer
Taunusstar provides allocation information for informational and educational purposes only. These are not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.